stats808 Box Office Modeling is a U.S. box office forecasting project I developed in 2014. While there are many econometric models available to forecast opening weekend, I went a step further by developing revenue forecasts for each week a movie is shown in theaters.

Using weekly U.S. box office data scraped from Box Office Mojo, consolidated review scores, and search engine activity using Google Trends, I developed models to forecast opening weekend revenue and total run revenue for new movies.

I then estimated weekday and weekend revenue for the remainder of each movie’s run in theaters using Bass diffusion models combined with theater count and film genre information.

These models were updated weekly with the release of revenue actuals for the previous week.

To present the data, I developed a WordPress post template with interactive D3.js charts and tables.

stats808 example

I will be revisiting this project in the future.